A Flood Potential Index for Effective Communication of Streamflow Forecasts at Ungauged Communities

Abstract

AbstractThis study proposes a flood potential index suitable for use in streamflow forecasting at any location in a drainage network. We obtained the index by comparing the discharge magnitude derived from a hydrologic model and the expected mean annual peak flow at the spatial scale of the basin. We use the term “flood potential” to indicate that uncertainty is associated with this information. The index helps communicate flood potential alerts to communities near rivers where there are no quantitative records of historical floods to provide a reference. This method establishes a reference that we can compare to forecasted hydrographs and that facilitates communication of their relative importance. As a proof of concept, the authors present an assessment of the index as applied to the peak flows that caused severe floods in Iowa in June 2008. The Iowa Flood Center uses the proposed approach operationally as part of its real-time hydrologic forecasting system.