A flash in the pan: why was UKIP’s electoral achievement so short-lived?

Abstract

Why did the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) achieve short-term electoral success before the 2016 Brexit referendum but lose most of its support afterward? Where did its constituency go? This paper constructs an analytical framework to explain the electoral fate of UKIP across three dimensions: party ability, voter preferences and institutional constraints. Based on individual level data and case analysis, we summarize the supporting and inhibiting factors that influence the rise and fall of UKIP. The core point is that UKIP used the Eurozone and refugee crises to criticize the policy framework of mainstream parties and governments, and to propose radical responses to successfully attract or mobilize voters. However, the victory achieved through the referendum also weakened the dissatisfaction of voters, thereby reducing the electoral competitiveness of UKIP in taking advantage of new issues that might attract the support of constituencies aroused by Brexit. This rise and meteoric descent for UKIP shows that its base is unstable and its voters are mostly protesters rather than loyalists. The majority of voters who abandoned UKIP turned to the Conservative Party. This can be interpreted in two ways. One is that the mainstream party has been shifting rightward from a nationalistic standpoint; the other is that the right-wing populist movement may affect the mainstream party system to varying degrees.