A flame combustion model-based wildfire-induced tripping risk assessment approach of transmission lines

Abstract

With the intensification of global climate change, the frequency of wildfires has markedly increased, presenting an urgent challenge in assessing tripping failures for power systems. This paper proposes an innovative method to evaluate the spatial wildfire-induced tripping risk of transmission lines based on a flame combustion model. Firstly, Bayes theory is employed to assess the spatial probability of wildfire occurrence. Subsequently, Wang Zhengfei’s flame combustion model is utilized to estimate the potential flame height of wildfires along the transmission corridor. Thirdly, the insulation breakdown risk of the transmission line is calculated based on the relative height difference between the flame and the transmission line. Finally, the spatial wildfire-induced tripping risk of the transmission line is then determined by combining the wildfire occurrence probability and the insulation breakdown risk. A case study conducted in Guizhou province, China validates the accuracy of the proposed model. Utilizing ArcGIS, the wildfire occurrence probability distribution in Guizhou is visualized to enhance the efficiency of operation and maintenance. The results indicate that over 80% of wildfire incidents occurred in areas with occurrence probabilities exceeding 50%.