A Fixed-Precision Sequential Sampling Plan for the Potato Tuberworm Moth, Phthorimaea operculella Zeller (Lepidoptera: Gelechidae), on Potato Cultivars.

Abstract

Phthorimaea operculella Zeller is an important pest of potato in Iran. Spatial distribution and fixed-precision sequential sampling for population estimation of the pest on two potato cultivars, Arinda® and Sante®, were studied in two separate potato fields during two growing seasons (2013-2014 and 2014-2015). Spatial distribution was investigated by Taylor's power law and Iwao's patchiness. Results showed that the spatial distribution of eggs and larvae was random. In contrast to Iwao's patchiness, Taylor's power law provided a highly significant relationship between variance and mean density. Therefore, fixed-precision sequential sampling plan was developed by Green's model at two precision levels of 0.25 and 0.1. The optimum sample size on Arinda® and Sante® cultivars at precision level of 0.25 ranged from 151 to 813 and 149 to 802 leaves, respectively. At 0.1 precision level, the sample sizes varied from 5083 to 1054 and 5100 to 1050 leaves for Arinda® and Sante® cultivars, respectively. Therefore, the optimum sample sizes for the cultivars, with different resistance levels, were not significantly different. According to the calculated stop lines, the sampling must be continued until cumulative number of eggs+larvae reached to 15-16 or 96-101 individuals at precision levels of 0.25 or 0.1, respectively. The performance of the sampling plan was validated by resampling analysis using resampling for validation of sampling plans software. The sampling plant provided in this study can be used to obtain a rapid estimate of the pest density with minimal effort.