A Fireline Displacement Model to Predict Fire Spread

Abstract

Most current surface fire simulators rely upon Rothermel’s model, which considers the local properties of fuel, topography, and meteorology to estimate the rate of spread, and utilises the concept of elliptical growth to predict the evolution of the fire perimeter throughout time. However, the effects of convective processes near the fireline, which modify fire spread conditions along the fire perimeter, are not considered in this model. An innovative fire prediction simulator based on the concept of fireline element displacement, which is composed of translation, rotation, and extension, rather than a point-by-point displacement, is proposed in this article. Based on the laws of convective heat fluxes across and along the fireline and on laboratory experiments, models to estimate the angular rotation velocity and the extension of the fireline during its displacement are proposed. These models are applied to a set of laboratory experiments of point ignition fires on slopes of 30° and 40° and, given the fact that the rate of spread of the head, back, and flank fire are known, the evolution of the fire perimeter can be predicted. The fire spread model can be applied to other situations of varying boundary conditions provided that the parameters required by the model are known.