Abstract
ABSTRACT This paper integrates the 24Model with a BN and proposes a fire risk assessment method for offshore platforms. Triangular fuzzy membership function fuzzy set theory, coefficient of variation method and the combination of node state distance function and fuzzy inference are used to address the subjectivity and uncertainty due to insufficient objective data and conflicting opinions of multiple experts. Based on the proposed method, the human, organisational and technical factors of an offshore platform are comprehensively analysed from the perspective of the system. Based on diagnostic inference and sensitivity analysis, the main affecting factors and causal path of the risk scenario are determined. The results show that the proposed method could help in identifying the root causes of the failures and provide new insights into the probabilities and relationships among different factors.
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