A financial analysis of establishing poplar plantations for carbon offsets using Alberta and British Columbia’s afforestation protocols

Abstract

Both Alberta and British Columbia allow the use of carbon offsets for meeting government greenhouse gas emission targets, but the provinces have different offset protocols. In British Columbia, afforested lands may be harvested yet still receive carbon offsets, whereas in Alberta, according to a yet-to-be-approved draft protocol, offsets could be contingent upon afforested lands being set aside as conservation easements. Our work considers the regulatory differences between the provincial carbon protocols as they impact the financial viability of afforestation projects in Alberta and British Columbia. Our results suggest that carbon prices would have to rise to approximately $150 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) before conservation afforestation projects using balsam poplar would be financially viable in Alberta. However, afforesting and harvesting short-rotation hybrid poplar in British Columbia yields financially viable results under current carbon prices if stumpage prices for standing timber were to rise above $50·m–3. There may be other incentives such as the benefits from public relations associated with planting trees that may lead to the implementation of some afforestation carbon offset projects. However, it appears that financial considerations present a significant barrier, making it unlikely that afforestation of private land will play a significant role in generating carbon offsets for Alberta or British Columbia.