A Filippov model describing the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the spread of human influenza

Abstract

Mass-media reports on an epidemic or pandemic have the potential to modify human behaviour and affect social attitudes. Here we construct a Filippov model to evaluate the effects of media coverage and quarantine on the transmission dynamics of influenza. We first choose a piecewise smooth incidence rate to represent media reports being triggered once the number of infected individuals exceeds a certain critical level Ic1. Further, if the number of infected cases increases and exceeds another larger threshold value Ic2 (>Ic1), we consider that the incidence rate tends to a saturation level due to the protection measures taken by individuals; meanwhile, we begin to quarantine susceptible individuals when the number of susceptible individuals is larger than a threshold value Sc. Then, for each susceptible threshold value Sc, the global properties of the Filippov model with regard to the existence and stability of all possible equilibria and sliding-mode dynamics are examined, as we vary the infected threshold values Ic1 and Ic2. We show generically that the Filippov system stabilizes at either the endemic equilibrium of the subsystem or the pseudoequilibrium on the switching surface or the endemic equilibrium Ec=(Sc,Ic2), depending on the choice of the threshold values. The findings suggest that proper combinations of infected and susceptible threshold values can maintain the number of infected individuals either below a certain threshold level or at a previously given level.