Abstract
We apply Singular Spectrum Analysis to four datasets of observed global-mean near-surface temperature from start year to through 2012: HadCRU (to = 1850), NOAA (to = 1880), NASA (to = 1880), and JMA (to = 1891). For each dataset, SSA reveals a trend of increasing temperature and several quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). QPOs 1, 2 and 3 are predictable on a year-by-year basis by sine waves with periods/amplitudes of: 1) 62.4 years/0.11°C; 2) 20.1 to 21.4 years/0.04°C to 0.05°C; and 3) 9.1 to 9.2 years/0.03°C to 0.04°C. The remainder of the natur°l variability is not predictable on a year-by-year basis. We represent this noise by its 90 percent confidence interval. We combine the predictable and unpredictable natural variability with the temperature changes caused by the 11-year solar cycle and humanity, the latter for both the Reference and Revised-Fair-Plan scenarios for future emissions of greenhouse gases. The resulting temperature departures show that we have moved from the first phase of learning—Ignorance—through the second phase—Uncertainty—and are now entering the third phase—Resolution—when the human-caused signal is much larger than the natural variability. Accordingly, it is now time to transition to the post-fossil-fuel age by phasing out fossil-fuel emissions from 2020 through 2100.
Highlights
In our year-2000 “Causes of Global Temperature Changes During the 19th and 20th Centuries” paper we concluded: “it is prudent not to expect year-after-year warming in the near future and, in so doing, diminish concern about global warming should global cooling instead manifest itself again” [1]
This record length will be attained for the NOAA and NASA data in 2032, and for the JMA data in 2043. This is 19 and 30 years into the future. As this is a long time to wait to determine the structure of Quasi-periodic Oscillations (QPOs)-1 from the NOAA, NASA and JMA data, we suggest that these groups extend their temperature observations backward in time to 1850
It is time to begin to deal with the Global Warming Problem by adopting our Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate, FP2, which entails making the transition from the Fossil-fuel Age to the Post Fossil-fuel Age within this century, by phasing out the emission of greenhouse gases from 2020 to 2100
Summary
In our year-2000 “Causes of Global Temperature Changes During the 19th and 20th Centuries” paper we concluded: “it is prudent not to expect year-after-year warming in the near future and, in so doing, diminish concern about global warming should global cooling instead manifest itself again (as it did from 1944 to 1976)” [1] (hereafter Causes 1) This caution notwithstanding, some climate skeptics have concluded that there is no human-caused global warming because during the time period 1998 to 2008, there was no increase in the globalmean near-surface temperature [2]. The observed changes in global-mean near-surface temperature are due to two factors, one external to the climate system, and the other internal thereto. It is the latter that caused us to write the cautionary warning stated in the Introduction
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