A Factor Decomposition on China’s Carbon Emission from 1997 to 2012 Based on IPAT-LMDI Model

Wei Li,Ya-Bo Shen,Hui-Xia Zhang

doi:10.1155/2015/943758

Wei Li, Ya-Bo Shen + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/943758

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Abstract

We probe into the key factors that possess significant effects on China’s CO2emissions during 1997–2012 on the basis of IPAT-LMDI model. Carbon dioxide emissions are specifically decomposed into CO2emission intensity, energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, economic output, and population scale effects. Results indicate that the paramount driving factors that resulted in the growth of CO2emissions are economic output, population scale, and energy structure. In contrast, energy intensity and industrial structure generally play an outstanding role in reducing emissions. This paper constructs a new weight assessment system by introducing “contribution value-significant factor-effect coefficient” to replace “contribution value-contribution rate” in the previous literature. According to the most significant positive effect and the most negative effect from the conclusion, we point out the effective policies that can not only accelerate the target of “China’s carbon emissions per unit of GDP could be cut down by 40–45% by 2020, from 2005 levels,” but also have crucial significance on the low-carbon economic development strategy of China.

Highlights

The world economy is in a period of transition to a low-carbon economy, while China is facing a stage of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization
The total energy consumption increased at an average annual rate of 6.80%, and CO2 emissions were raised at an average annual rate of 7.03% during 1997–2012
China’s CO2 emissions rapidly grow at an average annual rate of 7.03% from 1997 to 2012

Summary

Introduction

The world economy is in a period of transition to a low-carbon economy, while China is facing a stage of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization. Economic growth gives rise to the augmentation of energy consumption and CO2 emissions [1]. China is the largest developing country in the world with the rapid economic development. The total GDP has run up to 5878.61 billion dollars by 2010 exceeding Japan, turning into the second largest economy in the world. China’s primary energy consumption raised sharply from 1.38 to 3.62 billion ton coal equivalent (tec) during 1997–2012 [2]. With the persistent focus on climate change from all countries in the world, carbon emissions have captured growing attention of our government. China’s energy-related carbon emissions have reached 7.03 billion tons by 2008, surpassing the United States to become the world’s largest emitter for the first time. Carbon emissions will constraint China’s energy consumption in the process of the increased economy

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