A efetividade dos ciclos políticos nos municípios brasileiros: Um enfoque contábil

Abstract

Based on the political cycles theories, this paper aims to demonstrate how the accounting indicators can be related to an “opportunistic” behavior of the governors, seen as one who is directed to them hold on power or their political allies. We started from a sample of 3,404 municipalities covering the period leading up to the elections for the office of Mayor occurring in the years 2000, 2004 and 2008. The results showed significant effects on the following variables: i) The increase in the Budget Balance and Current Budget Balance in election years reduces the likelihood of reelection; ii) Cash flow generation in election years and post-election years increases the probability of reelection; iii ) the increase in net financial result calculated on the balance sheet in pre-election years have a positive impact on the chances of reappointment, and iv) the increase in investment spending increases the probability of renewal. Given the results, as expected, the informational asymmetry exerts a significant influence on political cycles, so that, to remain in power, governments can take advantage of a lack of rationality of the voters and their inability to foresee the “opportunistic” behavior pointed to the reelection.