A Dynamo-Based Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

Abstract

The solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun’s activity dominates Earth’s space environment. The frequency and intensity of Sun’s activity follow the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. Dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide forecasts, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Solar Cycle 24 to predict Solar Cycle 25, so that we can verify whether the previous success is repeatable. The prediction shows that Solar Cycle 25 would be about 10% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with an amplitude of 126 (international sunspot number Version 2.0). The result suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will not be the beginning of a Maunder-like grand solar minimum as suggested by some publications. The solar behavior in about four to five years will confirm whether the prediction method captures the key mechanism for solar cycle variability, which is the polar field around the cycle minimum in our model.