A dynamics model of the emergency medical supply chain in epidemic considering deprivation cost

Abstract

Emergency medical supplies are the basic resources for epidemic prevention and reducing disaster losses. If the supplies cannot be provided in time, the victims will suffer psychological or physical pain. This paper uses the deprivation cost (DC) to measure the victims’ suffering in COVID-19 cases. After analyzing the dynamic relationship between epidemic control and supplies providing, a system dynamics (SD) model of emergency medical supply chain considering the deprivation cost is proposed. Furthermore, based on the case of epidemic prevention in Wuhan, China, in early 2020, we explore the influence of the strength of the mobilization policy (SMP), concerns about data reliability (CDR), and public confidence in emergency response (PCER) on the operation of the supply chain, by which the effective strategies can be found to improve the efficiency of emergency supplies support. The results show that: at the late stage of epidemic control, concerns about data reliability will inhibit the growth of the demand fulfillment rate (DFR), while enhancing the strength of the mobilization policy can appropriately improve the demand fulfillment rate. Restoring public confidence in emergency response can delay personnel panic and contribute to epidemic control, but it has no significant effect on demand fulfillment rate and deprivation cost.