Abstract

Precise comprehension about the impacts of drivers’ rational and perceptual characteristics on their behavioral decisions is crucial for the accurate prediction of driving behavior. In the previous research on driving behavior, drivers were regarded as homogeneous and absolutely rational individuals. To overcome this limitation, the coupling effects of bounded rational cognition and diverse emotions are considered, and a driving behavior model is proposed based on Dynamics Psychology. There are two parts in this research. In Study 1, the information entropy theory is applied to describe the vehicle cluster situation, and a method is established to quantify the cognitive uncertainty of the vehicle cluster situation for drivers in diverse emotions. In Study 2, with consideration of bounded rational and emotional cognition, the impacts of the vehicle cluster situation and drivers' features, which are their demands for the driving goals including safety, efficiency and comfort, emotional states, and cognitive characteristics, on driving behavior are uniformly expressed as the behavioral driving force, and a prediction model for driving behavior is proposed based on Dynamics Psychology. The results of validation based on the virtual driving data show the prediction accuracy of the proposed model for various driving behaviors of drivers in diverse emotions is over 80%. The results of verification based on NGSIM data suggest that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model for the natural driving behaviors is 82.07%. The research results can contribute to the study on the intrinsic mechanism of driving behavior and provide theoretical support for the development of traffic simulation, personalized active safety systems, human–machine interaction, and brain-inspired autonomous driving.

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