Abstract
Abstract. Here we demonstrate that dynamical adjustment allows a straightforward approach to extreme event attribution within a conditional framework. We illustrate the potential of the approach with two iconic extreme events that occurred in 2010: the early winter European cold spell and the Russian summer heat wave. We use a dynamical adjustment approach based on constructed atmospheric circulation analogues to isolate the various contributions to these two extreme events using only observational and reanalysis datasets. Dynamical adjustment results confirm previous findings regarding the role of atmospheric circulation in the two extreme events and provide a quantitative estimate of the various dynamic and thermodynamic contributions to the event amplitude. Furthermore, the approach is also used to identify the drivers of the recent 1979–2018 trends in summer extreme maximum and minimum temperature changes over western Europe and western Asia. The results suggest a significant role of the dynamic component in explaining temperature extreme changes in different regions, including regions around the Black and Caspian seas as well as central Europe and the coasts of western Europe. Finally, dynamical adjustment offers a simple and complementary storyline approach to extreme event attribution with the advantage that no climate model simulations are needed, making it a promising candidate for the fast-track component of any real-time extreme event attribution system.
Highlights
Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells have a profound impact on human health (Guo et al, 2018; Robine et al, 2008), natural ecosystems (Stillman, 2019), social systems and the economy (Jahn, 2015)
The dynamical adjustment approach based on the constructed analogue method and extended at a daily timescale has been used to assess the contribution of circulation-related temperature anomalies to extreme temperature events
We have used the dynamical adjustment approach to assess the possible contribution of atmospheric circulation to changes in summer extremes for two regions, western Asia and Europe, and during the 1979–2018 period
Summary
Extreme weather events such as heat waves and cold spells have a profound impact on human health (Guo et al, 2018; Robine et al, 2008), natural ecosystems (Stillman, 2019), social systems and the economy (Jahn, 2015). Science questions related to the origin, causal and amplifying factors as well as predictability and prediction of these events have led to an unprecedented number of studies in the last 20 years, with 2003 being perhaps the starting point of this intense wave of research activity (Stott et al, 2004) This emerging field of research is often referred to as extreme event attribution, it often covers a range of questions and issues that go beyond the standard attribution framework Hegerl and Zwiers, 2011; Lloyd and Shepherd, 2020). A second type of approach (thereafter the process-based approach) puts more emphasis on the identification of the physical drivers of extreme events Within this second approach, the main objective is to quantify the influence of the key causal factors of the extreme event under scrutiny rather than estimating changes in the likelihood of the event due to human influence (see Wehrli et al, 2019, for a perfect example of the process-based approach). Both risk- and process-based approaches can often be combined in some ways to improve the understanding
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