Abstract
For the reliable performance of technologically advanced radio communications systems under geomagnetically disturbed conditions, the forecast and modelling of the ionospheric response during storms is a high priority. The ionospheric storm forecasting models that are currently in operation have shown a high degree of reliability during quiet conditions, but they have proved inadequate during storm events. To improve their prediction accuracy, we have to take advantage of the deeper understanding in ionospheric storm dynamics that is currently available, indicating a correlation between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) disturbances and the qualitative signature of ionospheric storm disturbances at middle latitude stations. In this paper we analyse observations of the foF2 critical frequency parameter from one mid-latitude European ionospheric station (Chilton) in conjunction with observations of IMF parameters (total magnitude, Bt and Bz-IMF component) from the ACE spacecraft mission for eight storm events. The determination of the time delay in the ionospheric response to the interplanetary medium disturbances leads to significant results concerning the forecast of the ionospheric storms onset and their development during the first 24 h. In this way the real-time ACE observations of the solar wind parameters may be used in the development of a real-time dynamic ionospheric storm model with adequate accuracy.
Highlights
Access to real-time information on ionospheric conditions over a certain area (e.g., Europe), as a requirement for high frequency communication, satellite-to-ground links, and solarterrestrial research, requires: a) a network of vertical ionosondes covering as large an area as possible with real-time data access (Hanbaba, 1999); Ioanna Tsagouri, Anna Belehaki and Ljiljana R
The ionospheric critical frequency of the F2layer is highly variable on time-scales ranging from decades to seconds with the occurrence of ionospheric disturbances associated with geomagnetic storms
Many attempts have been made recently in Europe to study the space environmental disturbances frequently referred to as space weather (Cander, 2003). In these studies the focus is on forecasting the geomagnetic storm effect on the main ionospheric parameters to enable extreme conditions to be quantified so that for telecommunications planning likely variability bounds can be defined
Summary
3000 km range MUF(3000)F2, NeQuick modelled vertical Total Electron Content (TEC), and Frequency of Optimum Traffic (FOT) for the area of interest at each UT hour. These results clearly suggest that the STIF tool provides a very reliable forecasting technique in relatively quiet geomagnetic conditions. The data from ACE could be a useful tool in real time ionospheric space weather forecasting This contribution is an investigation of the ionospheric response to interplanetary magnetic field disturbances with the primary goal of developing the understanding and the means to forecast how the ionospheric F2-layer will respond to abruptly and dramatically changing solar and geomagnetic conditions. It is an attempt to use the Real-Time Solar Wind (RTSW) data from the ACE spacecraft mission to derive criteria for issuing alerts for forthcoming major geomagnetic storms, as one of the dominant space weather events, and their effects on the ionospheric critical frequency foF2 in the first 24 h
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