A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience

Chao Chen,Ming Yang,Genserik Reniers

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.107909

Chao Chen, Ming Yang + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107909

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Abstract

A disruption to hazardous (flammable, explosive, and toxic) material (HAZMAT) storage plants may trigger escalation effects, resulting in more severe storage performance losses and making the performance restoration more difficult. The disruption, such as an intentional attack, may be difficult to predict and prevent, thus developing a resilient HAZMAT storage plant may be a practical and effective way to deal with these disruptions. This study develops a dynamic stochastic methodology to quantify the resilience of HAZMAT storage plants. In this methodology, resilience evolution scenarios are modeled as a dynamic process that consists of four stages: disruption, escalation, adaption, and restoration stages. The resistant capability in the disruption stage, mitigation capability in the escalation stage, adaption capability in the adaption stage, and restoration capability in the restoration stage are quantified to obtain the HAZMAT storage resilience. The uncertainties in the disruption stage and the mitigation stage are considered, and the dynamic Monte Carlo method is used to simulate possible resilience scenarios and thus quantify the storage resilience. A case study is used to illustrate the developed methodology, and a discussion based on the case study is provided to find out the critical parameters and resilience measures.

Highlights

In the petroleum and chemical industry, hazardous material (HAZ MAT) storage infrastructures play a critical role in industrial production by providing various chemical products such as petroleum, natural gas, and acrylonitrile
The results indicate that further decreasing the possible heat radiation may not be cost-effective when the reduced heat radiation is more than 60%
This paper proposes a dynamic stochastic methodology to measure it, considering possible escalation effects and the recovery of damaged installations

Summary

Introduction

In the petroleum and chemical industry, hazardous material (HAZ MAT) storage infrastructures play a critical role in industrial production by providing various chemical products such as petroleum, natural gas, and acrylonitrile These chemicals are always stored in atmospheric tanks or pressurized tanks located nearby in an industrial area (e.g., oil depots, LNG terminals, and chemical storage facilities). Most of these chemical products are flammable, explosive, or toxic, making storage facilities vulnerable to disruptions, resulting in major accidents such as fire, explosion, and hazardous release [[13],[27],[50],[62],[77],[80]]. Ac cording to the nature of the disruption events, the disruptions may be divided into three categories: unintentional accidents, natural disasters, and intentional (cyber or physical) attacks [[13],[16],[32],[71]]

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