A dynamic simulation model of desertification in Egypt

Abstract

This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze potential future state of desertification in Egypt. The presented model enhances the MEDALUS methodology developed by European Commission. It illustrates the concept of desertification through different equations and simulation output graphs. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram showing the feedback between different variables. For the purpose of testing and measuring the effect of different policy scenarios on desertification in Egypt, a simulation model using stock and flow diagram was designed. Multi-temporal data were used to figure out the dynamic changes in desertification sensitivity related to the dynamic nature of desert environment. The model was applied to Al Bihira governorate in western Nile Delta, Egypt, as the study area, and the results showed that the urban expansion, salinization, and not applying the policy enforcement are considered the most variables provoking the desertification.