A dynamic nomogram for predicting unfavorable prognosis after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Abstract

The aim of this study was to examine the predictive value of the multiplication of neutrophil and monocyte counts (MNM) in peripheral blood, and develop a new predictive model for the prognosis of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). This is a retrospective analysis that included 2 separate cohorts of patients undergoing endovascular coiling for aSAH. The training cohort consisted of 687 patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College; the validation cohort consisted of 299 patients from Sun Yat-sen University's Affiliated Jieyang People's Hospital. The training cohort was used to develop 2 models to predict unfavorable prognosis (modified Rankin scale of 3-6 at 3 months): one was based on traditional factors (e.g., age, modified Fisher grade, NIHSS score, and blood glucose), and another model that included traditional factors as well as MNM on admission. In the training cohort, MNM upon admission was independently associated with unfavorable prognosis (odds ratio after adjustment, 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.10). In the validation cohort, the basic model that included only traditional factors had 70.99% sensitivity, 84.36% specificity, and 0.859 (95% CI, 0.817-0.901) area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Adding MNM increased model sensitivity (from 70.99% to 76.48%), specificity (from 84.36% to 88.63%), and overall performance (AUC 0.859 [95% CI, 0.817-0.901] to 0.879 [95% CI, 0.841-0.917]). MNM upon admission is associated with unfavorable prognosis in patients undergoing endovascular embolization for aSAH. The nomogram including MNM is a user-friendly tool to help clinicians quickly predict the outcome of patients with aSAH.