Abstract
In the chemical industry, multi-hazard (toxic, flammable, and explosive) materials such as acrylonitrile are stored, transported, and processed in large quantities. A release of multi-hazard materials can simultaneously or sequentially lead to acute toxicity, fire and explosion. The spatial-temporal evolution of hazards may also result in cascading effects. In this study, a dynamic methodology called “Dynamic Graph Monte Carlo” (DGMC) is developed to model the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios and assess the vulnerability of humans and installations exposed to such hazards. In the DGMC model, chemical plants are modeled as a multi-agent system with three kinds of agents: hazardous installations, ignition sources, and humans while considering the uncertainties and interdependencies among the agents and their impacts on the evolution of hazards and possible escalation effects. A case study is analyzed using the DGMC methodology, demonstrating that the risk can be underestimated if the spatial-temporal evolution of multi-hazard scenarios is neglected. Vapor cloud explosion (VCEs) may lead to more severe damage than fire, and the safety distances which are implemented only based on fire hazards are not sufficient to prevent from the damage of VCEs.
Highlights
The past decades have witnessed an increase in the number, size, and diversity of chemical plants due to the increasing population and the increasing requirement for products [1,2]
Chemical industrial areas are usually congested with hazardous storage tanks, complex piping, high-pressure compressors, and separators in which a loss of containment (LOC) event may lead to cascading effects and multiple hazards
The explo sion at tank areas I and II can damage the tanks in area III, possibly resulting in fires. It indicates that the safety distances provided for preventing fire escalation is not sufficient to prevent the damage caused by Vapor cloud explosion (VCEs)
Summary
The past decades have witnessed an increase in the number, size, and diversity of chemical plants due to the increasing population and the increasing requirement for products (energy, chemicals, commodities, and food, etc.) [1,2]. The rapid expansion of the process plants and in frastructures brings huge economic benefits while unavoidably increasing the exposure to major hazards caused by hazardous materials in chemical industrial areas, resulting in human losses, environmental damage and economic losses [3,4,5,6,7]. Major hazards such as fire, explo sion, and toxic release arising from loss of containments may occur due to intentional or unintentional causes [8,9,10,11]. Chemical industrial areas are usually congested with hazardous storage tanks, complex piping, high-pressure compressors, and separators in which a loss of containment (LOC) event may lead to cascading effects and multiple hazards
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