A Dynamic Modeling for Forecasting of Air Pollution Effects on Human Health and Cost of Illness

Abstract

The last decade, has resulted in sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful pollutants which are emitted in the atmospheric. The pollutants have caused serious health related problems due to exposure to poor air quality such as respiratory symptoms or illness impaired cardiopulmonary function, reduction of lung function, and premature mortality. The intensified process of industrialization and urbanization in India in past decade has resulted in sever environmental degradation causing serious threat to the health of Indian citizens. This study attempts to understand the air pollution level in Agra city and its effects on human health in terms of economic cost. With the application of system dynamic model forecasting of the levels of air pollutants viz., SO2, NO2, PM10, & TSPM for future has been made. The study brings out the fact that the level of SO2 will be decrease and the level of TSPM and PM10, will increase rapidly. This model also shows that the sick population and economic cost will likely be doubled within the gap of just fifteen years.