A Dynamic Model of Voting

Abstract

We propose and estimate a dynamic model of voting which incorporates the three main factors affecting voting choices of individual citizens: party identification, policy preferences and candidates’ valence. Using individual level data on voting decisions in two consecutive presidential elections we identify and estimate (1) the distribution of voters’ policy positions, and (2) candidates’ valence. In this respect our analysis differs from existing empirical economic studies of voting which restrict their analysis on single elections and focus on the estimation of policy preferences only. We estimate the structural model using data on individual voting decisions in the 1968 and 1972 U.S. presidential elections and we use the estimated model to conduct counterfactual experiments to assess the relative importance of candidates’ policy positions and valence as well as voters’ information on electoral outcomes.