Abstract
In order to study the global uranium market, a dynamic model for the period 1990–2050 has been developed. It incorporates globally aggregated stocks and flows of uranium moving through the nuclear fuel cycle, as well as a price formation mechanism. Analysis illustrates some of the key features of the market for this commodity, including the role that time lags play in the formation of price volatility. Specific demand reduction and substitution strategies and technologies are explored, and potential external shocks are simulated to investigate the effect on price and how the uranium mining industry responds. Sensitivity analysis of key model parameters indicates that the time constant related to the formation of traders׳ expectations of future market prices embedded in the proposed price discovery mechanism has a strong influence on both the amplitude and frequency of price peaks. Finally, our analysis leads us to believe that the existing uranium resource base will be sufficient to satisfy demand well into the second half of the 21st century.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.