A dynamic model for population mapping: a methodology integrating a Monte Carlo simulation with vegetation-adjusted night-time light images

Abstract

Population is attracting increasing attention as a driver of resource overexploitation, environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental challenges. Timely and accurately updating maps of population distribution are thus urgently needed. Images of night-time lights from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System (DMSP-OLS) have been used for years in population mapping as an alternative to human settlement distribution. The capacity of night-time light images for gridding populations, however, is compromised by the dual effects of saturation and overglow. Static models of the human settlement index (HSI), elevation-adjusted human settlement index (EAHSI), and vegetation-adjusted night-time light urban index (VANUI) have been developed to counteract these negative effects by using constant coefficients. The static models, however, retain disadvantages due to the negative effects of the high variation of socio-economic backgrounds in different study areas. In this study, we integrate Monte Carlo simulation with the above three static indices and propose the dynamic model VANUI Supported by Monte Carlo Simulation (VANUIMCS) for mapping the population of Liaoning Province, China. We assess the accuracy of the simulation using data for 60 counties and 1251 townships. The VANUIMCS improve the accuracy of population mapping, with the mean percentage errors of 19.43% at the county level and 43.19% at the township level.