A dynamic input–output method for energy system modeling and analysis

Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic input–output model, in order to present the interaction mechanism between energy supply and demand, and provide optimal design for energy supply–consumption system. Combined with mixed integer programming, the model is able to provide optimal technology development route for the energy supply–consumption system. In this model, the generational change and replacement of energy supply facilities are considered. Based on the model, a case study of China is employed. Three scenarios are designed to compare the different outcome of the model. The optimal objectives of Scenario 1 are Pareto Optimality of minimum total energy consumption and minimum total CO2 emission. The optimal objective of Scenario 2 is minimum CO2 emission. The optimal objective of Scenario 3 is minimum energy consumption. Scenario 1 leads to a balancing design of multiple objectives, and the results indicate that energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction targets can be achieved simultaneously. Compared with the optimal design with single objective of Scenarios 2 and 3, the balancing design with multiple objectives performs better in avoiding over-capacity problems during the modeling period. With well-designed development route, energy intensity can be reduced by about 58%–60%, and CO2 emission intensity can be reduced by about 34%–36% from 2012 to 2040. The optimal objectives of the model also influence the development of energy demand structure. The modeling results of transport sector are presented as an example in this paper. To achieve the targets of energy conservation and CO2 emission reduction, both the development routes for energy supply and demand should be well-designed.