A dynamic input-output model of the Tyumen Oblast south's development based on the von Neumann algorithm

Abstract

Subject. This article deals with the problem of constructing a real trajectory of the region's development and comparing it with the stated one. Objectives. The article aims to develop an algorithm for calculating and analyzing a dynamic input-output model of the south of the Tyumen Oblast, including social and infrastructural subsystems, and households as an endogenous variable-aggregate. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of construction and analysis of dynamic models by W. Leontief and J. von Neumann. Indicators of balanced growth trajectories were estimated using the Perron–Frobenius theorem. Results. The article proposes an algorithm for the formation of an investment variable. The matrix of direct costs for each year and on average for the periods 2017–2019 and 2017–2020 was identified. Based on the available statistical data, von Neumann highways and model development trajectories were constructed. Conclusions. The shown mechanism for a possible comparison of actual and planned optimal development can help organize digital monitoring of the region's development and analyze deviations from the optimal forecast.