A Dynamic Growth Model for Predicting Forest Fire Fuel Loads for Pinus Koraiensis Stands in South Korea

Abstract

The objective of this study is to predict the effects of forest management activities on canopy fuel characteristics for Pinus koraiensis stands. We used data from 136 managed stands and 23 unmanaged stands of the National Forest Inventory for this study. Weibull function and mortality models were developed. A dynamic growth model in which models were interactively linked was prepared to predict stand growth and forest fuel loads after considering the mortality rate. As a result, after 20 years of managed stand data, the increase in available canopy fuel load was predicted to be about 12.8 ton/ha and increase in available canopy bulk density was predicted to be about 0.2kg/m3. However, the increase in available canopy fuel load for unmanaged stands was about 15.2 ton/ha and the increase in available canopy bulk density was about 0.3 kg/m3. These results showed that there were higher forest fuel loads in unmanaged stands than in managed stands. The risk of crown fire hazard is higher, and the forest fire hazard of unmanaged stands is judged to be higher than that of managed stands of Pinus koraiensis species in South Korea. Keywords: Canopy Fuel Characteristics, Diameter Distribution, Mortality Models, Forest Management, Pinus Koraiensis