A dynamic decision-making approach for cabin unlawful interference emergency disposal using dynamic Bayesian network

Abstract

Disposal of unlawful interference incidents is essential for is crucial for the advancement of aviation security. Effective emergency disposal requires a comprehensive approach that includes the perspectives of airlines, airports, and passengers. In this context, each component of the disposal process can fail randomly. The objective of this research is to optimize emergency disposal decisions to enhance the efficiency of civil aviation operations, reduce accidents, and lower costs. Given the dynamic complexity of unlawful interference incidents, a dynamic fault tree consisting of 26 nodes was constructed to analyze the emergency disposal process. To explore the relationships and priorities of each event, the Dynamic Fault Tree is converted into a dynamic Bayesian network. Based on historical statistical data, simulation analysis is conducted in three aspects: posterior probability, sensitivity, and importance. Simulation results reveal that the top three critical nodes in cabin unlawful interference incidents are “structural damage to the cabin,” “inadequate training by airlines,” and “untimely airport police takeover of disruptive passengers.” Further analysis shows that (1) most of the critical nodes are associated with airlines. (2) The decision-making rationale and pathways of the critical nodes can be clearly observed and prioritized. (3) Besides airlines, other entities such as airports can implement targeted emergency disposal measures. Through quantitative analysis and simulation, this study provides decision-making guidance for participating groups on dynamic emergency disposal, thereby enhancing civil aviation security.