A Dynamic Bounded Rationality Model for Technology Selection in Cognition Process

Abstract

This paper attempts to overcome the defect of traditional technology selection models: the inaccurate depiction of the dynamic decision-making in technology selection with fixed time point and static preferences. To this end, a new dynamic model was created considering the preference changing over the time. The preferences were deconstructed with discontinuous functions, and a theory was developed under bounded rationality for the preference changes in four phases of cognition. It is discovered that the decision-maker may become conservative in cognition process, leading to equilibrium evolution in conservative direction over the time. The discovery was verified through a case study on the neuroscience innovation in China. The research findings shed new light on cognition and decision-making studies and open up a new way for technology selection.