A Dynamic Benchmark System for Per Capita Carbon Emissions in Low-Carbon Counties of China

Lijie Gao,Longyu Shi,Fengmei Yang,Xiaoqi Shang

doi:10.3390/en14030599

Abstract

As the most basic unit of the national economy and administrative management, the low-carbon transformation of the vast counties is of great significance to China’s overall greenhouse gas emission reduction. Although the low-carbon evaluation (LCE) indicator system and benchmarks have been extensively studied, most benchmarks ignore the needs of the evaluated object at the development stage. When the local economy develops to a certain level, it may be restricted by static low-carbon target constraints. This study reviews the relevant research on LCE indicator system and benchmarks based on convergence. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), a dynamic benchmark system for per capita carbon emissions (PCCEs), is proposed for low-carbon counties. Taking Changxing County, Zhejiang Province, China as an example, a dynamic benchmark for PCCEs was established by benchmarking the Carbon Kuznets Curve (CKC) of best practices. Based on the principles of best practice, comparability, data completeness, and the CKC hypothesis acceptance, the best practice database is screened, and Singapore is selected as a potential benchmark. By constructing an econometric model to conduct an empirical study on Singapore’s CKC hypothesis, the regression results of the least squares method support the CKC hypothesis and its rationality as a benchmark. The result of the PCCE benchmarks of Changxing County show that when the per capita income of Changxing County in 2025, 2030, and 2035 reaches USD 19,172.92, USD 24,483.01, and USD 29,366.11, respectively, the corresponding benchmarks should be 14.95 tons CO2/person, 14.70 tons CO2/person, and 13.55 tons CO2/person. For every 1% increase in the county’s per capita income, the PCCE allowable room for growth is 17.6453%. The turning point is when the per capita gross domestic product (PCGDP) is USD 20,843.23 and the PCCE is 15.03 tons of CO2/person, which will occur between 2025 and 2030. Prior to this, the PCCE benchmark increases with the increase of PCGDP. After that, the PCCE benchmark decreases with the increase of PCGDP. The system is economically sensitive, adaptable to different development stages, and enriches the methodology of low-carbon indicator evaluation and benchmark setting at the county scale. It can provide scientific basis for Chinese county decision makers to formulate reasonable targets under the management idea driven by evaluation indicators and emission reduction targets and help counties explore the coordinated paths of economic development and emission reduction in different development stages. It has certain reference significance for other developing regions facing similar challenges of economic development and low-carbon transformation to Changxing County to formulate scientific and reasonable low-carbon emission reduction targets.

Highlights

Introduction distributed under the terms andMore and more evidence shows the sudden and irreversible threat of climate change, mainly caused by human activities
Based on the above review, this paper argues that (1) per capita carbon emissions (PCCEs) is a basic carbon control indicator to measure equity and efficiency
(3) For counties that still regard economic development as their top priority, the PCCE benchmark should be set dynamically according to changes in economic development level and per capita income

Summary

Introduction

Introduction distributed under the terms andMore and more evidence shows the sudden and irreversible threat of climate change, mainly caused by human activities. At the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembly, China announced that it would reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and reach the level of carbon neutrality by 2060, so as to make a targeted response to climate change. To this end, the country needs to make more efforts in low-carbon development. Coal still accounts for a large proportion of primary energy consumption in county-level industrial sectors, and the carbon-intensive development model remains unchanged, which has caused many environmental problems [6]. The rapid development of low-carbon transition in counties is necessary and imminent

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion