A Dynamic Bayesian Network Probability Framework for Typhoon Risk Analysis in the Land-sea Regions

Abstract

The life cycle of a typhoon is mainly divided into three stages: far away from the coast, offshore, and on land. The disaster bodies and typhoons affected are different at every stage. The traditional assessment methods could not consider the risk from the complete typhoon life cycle to cover the effects of both land and sea. This paper proposes a Bayesian network risk assessment model to evaluate the navigational ship risk and damage risk of coastal structures during the different typhoon life cycles. The disaster memory database of the typhoon is also constructed in this paper, which deconstructs the typhoon risk factors and forms a unified description semantics.