A dynamic and simulation-based method for quantitative risk assessment of the domino accident in chemical industry

Abstract

A domino accident is a typical multi-hazard coupling disaster in the chemical industry that often has serious consequences and social impact. The quantitative risk assessment of domino accidents faces several difficulties caused by their complexity, unpredictability, and synergic effects. This paper proposes a new method for quantitative risk assessment of domino accidents in the chemical industry based on field theory and Monte Carlo simulation. The method is intended to obtain the dynamic distribution of the individual risk caused by the domino accident. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for all accident scenarios and to calculate the average risk distribution. The application of field theory enables the consideration of the synergic effects. To evaluate the efficacy of the assessment method, a typical domino scenario in a chemical plant in Yancheng, China, is taken as a case study. The results show that domino accidents consist of three stages: rapid development stage, stabilization stage, and weakening stage. The risks of fire, explosion, and toxic releases also have different distribution characteristics: flat, peak, and slope. The results also show that the risk of domino accidents increases due to the synergic effects of physical effects and human vulnerability. The new risk assessment method can provide guidance for the prevention, mitigation, and risk management of domino accidents in the chemical industry.