Abstract
"The dynamic relationship of net migration and employment change is examined for ten selected states of the U.S. using a multivariate time series approach--a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Granger causality tests and dynamic multipliers provide information on the dynamic process. The results suggest a state-level process in which employment change occurs first, and net migration follows with a lag. The procedure appears promising in investigating the timing of net migration and regional employment change."
Highlights
In recent decades the U.S economy has been characterized by regional shifts in population and in employment
The procedure used in this study enables investigation of the timing of net migration and employment change, i.e., the extent to which net migration leads, lags, or occurs simultaneously with employment change
Since Granger-causality results suggest lag/lead relationships between variables, the results suggest that employment change occurs first, followed by net migration
Summary
In recent decades the U.S economy has been characterized by regional shifts in population and in employment. In the decade of the 1970's, 89.9% of the nation's incremental population and 72.5% of incremental nonagricultural employment was captured by the South and West Census regions [Greenwood (1985)]. In the 1980's, the South and West continued their gains, receiving 89.2% of the increase in the nation's population and 66.4% of incremental nonagricultural employment in the period 1980-87 [U.S Bureau of the Census (1988, 1989)]. The pattern of regional shifts seems to change over time. Changes in the patterns of population shifts occurred in the early 1980's [Rogerson and Plane (1985)]. Rogerson and Plane (1985) found that " the West still has more in-migrants than out-migrants, the difference is declining" (p.47) The Northeast experienced positive net migration in 1983 for the first time since 1970. Rogerson and Plane (1985) found that " the West still has more in-migrants than out-migrants, the difference is declining" (p.47)
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