Abstract
Due to the lack of adjustment index systems for taxi fleet sizes in China, this paper used the taxi operating datasets from Ningbo City and established a regression tree model to consider the endogenous indicators that affect taxi fleet sizes. Then, a dynamic adjustment mechanism of taxi fleet sizes was proposed by combining the exogenous and endogenous indicators. The importance of the exogenous and endogenous indicators was sorted using the Delphi method. The threshold value of each indicator was also given. The results indicated that (1) in the three-layer structure of the regression tree model, the mileage utilization had the strongest effect on the fleet size of taxis, and the F statistic was 63.73; followed by the average daily revenue of a single taxi, the average waiting time to catch a single taxi, the average operating time of a single taxi, and the revenue per 100 km. The overall accuracy of the model was found to be valid. (2) When the mileage utilization was less than 0.6179 and the average daily revenue of a single taxi was less than 798.38 Yuan, the fleet size of cruising taxis was surplus and should be reduced by 362 vehicles. (3) When the mileage utilization was more than 0.6774 and the average waiting time to catch a single taxi was more than 259.09 s, the fleet size of cruising taxis was insufficient, and we suggest an increase of 463 taxis.
Highlights
As an important component of passenger transportation, the traditional taxicab provides trip services for people and occupies approximately 15–30% trips in the public transit systems [1]
(3) When the mileage utilization was more than 0.6774 and the average waiting time to catch a single taxi was more than 259.09 s, the fleet size of cruising taxis was insufficient, and we suggest an increase of 463 taxis
(4) For node 19, the mileage utilization is within the range of (0.6616, 0.6774), the threshold value is high, which indicates that the demand is slightly higher than the supply, but the average operating time of a single taxi is less than or equal to 616.28, which indicates that the driver’s working strength does not exceed the limit of tolerance
Summary
As an important component of passenger transportation, the traditional taxicab provides trip services for people and occupies approximately 15–30% trips in the public transit systems [1]. With the rise of on-demand ride-hailing taxis like Didi and Uber, the traditional taxi market descended into chaos [2] This has restricted the sustainable development of passenger transport in the cities of China. How to regulate a reasonable taxi fleet size to satisfy the passenger demand without sacrificing the income of taxi drivers is an important premise of taxi fleet size adjustment Both the operational efficiency and service level need to be guaranteed. Accurate threshold values of indicators for adjusting the fleet size of taxicabs do not exist It is necessary for the local government to establish a reasonable adjustment method for taxi fleet size and to alleviate the conflicts between the cruising taxis and Didi and Uber. The results provided a theoretical basis and decision support for dynamic adjustments of the cruising taxi fleet size
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