A dual‐scale system dynamics prediction method for post‐earthquake repair of urban building groups

Abstract

AbstractThe interaction between individual buildings and a city during the post‐earthquake repair process (e.g., the urban repair resource allocation for a building) has a significant influence on urban resilience. To consider such an interaction, a dual‐scale system dynamics prediction method for post‐earthquake repair of urban building groups is proposed, by which the detailed repair process of each individual building and the entire city can be systematically simulated. First, an urban priority for building repair is determined, and an algorithm for calculating the repair workload of individual buildings considering such an urban priority is developed for the following repair simulation of buildings. Next, a system dynamics model is established for simulating the repair process for individual buildings based on four types of resources, that is, workers, equipment, materials, and funds. Finally, a repair prediction model with a dual building‐to‐city scale is developed considering the resource allocation process of buildings. Two historical case studies were used to validate the accuracy of the system dynamics model for individual‐building repair. A case study on a small‐sized city was performed to reveal the influence patterns of different resource availability levels, repair modes, and structural systems on the repair process. The proposed method can predict in detail the post‐earthquake repair process with a dual building‐to‐city scale, supporting the decision‐making of city resilience.