Abstract
This paper aims to provide a better basis for understanding the transmission connection between tourism development and sustainable economic growth in the empirical scenario of International countries. In this way, we have applied the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in different countries in order to check the power of generalization of this framework to study the tourism development. Also, we extend this model to obtain the long-term effects of tourism development with confidence intervals. The influence of tourism development on sustainable economic growth is proved by our results and show the indirect consequences between tourist activity and other industries produced through the external effects of investment and human capital and public sector. Our study confirms that the DSGE technique can be a generalized model for the analysis of tourism development and, especially, can improve previous precision results with the DSGE-VAR model, where vector autoregression (VAR) is introduced in the DSGE model. The simulation results reveal even more than when the productivity of the economy in general enhances, as the current tourist demand increases in greater proportion than more than the national tourism demand. For its part, the consumption of domestic tourism rises more than the consumption of inbound tourism if the productivity of the tourism production enhances, but non-tourism prices decrease at a slower rate and tourism investment needs a longer time to recover to what is established.
Highlights
In recent decades, the tourism industry has established itself as a sector of great relevance to the world economy
Our results prove a high precision level shown by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)-vector autoregression (VAR) model compared to DSGE for the three countries considered, if we observe the deviations obtained
This paper shows the generalization of the positive impact causes by tourism productivity in the economic growth and how these positive effects are spread in the improvement of non-tourism sectors and public goods, which is evidenced in the increase in added value and human capital more competitive
Summary
The tourism industry has established itself as a sector of great relevance to the world economy. According to data from the World Tourism Barometer [1], the tourism sector represented 6.8% of world economy every year. Following the same report, the international tourism arrivals have grown 4% in the first nine months of 2019, after 6% in 2018, and the international tourism receipts can be seen over a longer period in revenues from visitor spending (Figure 1). Sustainability 2020, 12, 3635 Sustainability 2020, x, x FOR PEER REVIEW. International Tourist Arrivals (millions) 2 of 22 1 of 26. Percent change in international tourist arrivals over the same period of the previous year
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