A drifting trajectory prediction model based on object shape and stochastic motion features

Abstract

There is a huge demand to develop a method for marine search and rescue (SAR) operators automatically predicting the most probable searching area of the drifting object. This paper presents a novel drifting prediction model to improve the accuracy of the drifting trajectory computation of the sea-surface objects. First, a new drifting kinetic model based on the geometry characteristics of the objects is proposed that involves the effects of the object shape and stochastic motion features in addition to the traditional factors of wind and currents. Then, a computer simulation-based method is employed to analyze the stochastic motion features of the drifting objects, which is applied to estimate the uncertainty parameters of the stochastic factors of the drifting objects. Finally, the accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparison with the flume experimental results. It is shown that the proposed method can be used for various shape objects in the drifting trajectory prediction and the maritime search and rescue decision-making system.