A double-stage hierarchical ANFIS model for short-term wind power prediction

Abstract

Output power determination of wind generators is always associated with some uncertainties due to wind speed and other weather parameters alteration, and precise short-term predictions are essential for their efficient operation. This can efficiently support transmission and distribution system operators and schedulers to improve the power network control and management. In this paper, we propose a double stage hierarchical adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (double-stage hybrid ANFIS) model for short-term wind power prediction of a microgrid wind farm in Beijing, China. The model has two hierarchical stages. The first ANFIS stage employs numerical weather prediction (NWP) meteorological parameters to forecast wind speed at the wind farm exact site and turbine hub height. The second stage models the actual wind speed and power relationships. Then, the predicted next day's wind speed by the first stage is applied to the second stage to forecast next day's wind power. The proposed approach has attained significant prediction accuracy improvements. The performance of the proposed model is compared with three other prediction approaches and showed the best accuracy improvement of all.