Abstract
Overconfidence, a widely observed cognitive bias, has been linked to increased gambling motivations and behaviors. However, previous studies have largely overlooked overconfidence under a social comparison context, known as overplacement, i.e., the tendency of individuals to believe that they are better than their similar peers. In the present study, we tested the effect of overplacement on gambling motivations and behaviors though a Pilot Survey of Chinese college students (N = 129) and a Field Survey of Chinese Macao casino gamblers (N = 733). Our results revealed a double-edged sword effect of overplacement: Serving as a risk factor, evaluating one self's earning ability as higher than others was linked to more gambling motivations (β = 0.18, p = .005) and frequency (β = 0.18, p = .004); Serving as a protective factor, evaluating oneself as happier than others was linked to less gambling motivations (β = - 0.32, p < .001) and problem behaviors (β = - 0.26, p < .001). These findings expand the relationship between overconfidence and gambling from a cognitive bias perspective to a social comparison perspective. Our study not only revealed a typical profile of gambling motivations and behaviors among different demographic groups in Chinese casino gamblers, but also highlighted the importance of considering social factors in the study of the psychological mechanisms of gambling.
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