A diversity-based genetic algorithm for scenario generation

Abstract

Tackling uncertainty is becoming increasingly relevant for decision-support across fields due to its critical impact on real-world problems. Uncertainty is often modelled using scenarios, which are combinations of possible outcomes of the uncertain parameters in a problem. Alongside expected value methods, decisions under uncertainty may also be tackled using methods that do not rely on probability distributions and model different decision-maker risk profiles. Scenarios are at the core of these approaches. Therefore, we propose a scenario generation methodology that seizes the structure and concepts of genetic algorithms. This methodology aims to obtain a diverse set of scenarios, evolving a scenario population with a diversity goal. Diversity is here expressed as the difference in the impact that scenarios have on the value of potential solutions to the problem. Moreover, this method does not require a priori knowledge of probability distributions or statistical moments of uncertain parameters, as it is based on their range. We adapt the available code for Biased-Random Key Genetic Algorithms to apply the methodology to a packing problem under demand uncertainty as a proof of concept, also extending its use to a multi-objective setting. We make available these code adaptations to allow the straightforward application of this scenario generation method to other problems. With this, the decision-maker obtains scenarios with a distinct impact on potential solutions, enabling the use of different criteria based on their profile and preferences.