A Diverse Ensemble Deep Learning Method for Short-Term Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Spatiotemporal Correlations

Abstract

In this paper, considering spatiotemporal correlations, we propose a novel short-term traffic flow prediction method that is based on diverse ensemble deep learning. First, a new measurement function of spatial correlation is established, quantifying the spatial correlation of traffic flow parameters. Second, the convolutional neural network model embedded long short-term memory (LSTM-CNN) is used, enhancing the learning ability of the spatiotemporal correlation of traffic flow parameters. Third, according to the network structure, ensemble rules of diverse LSTM-CNNs are constructed, combining a series of different and moderately accurate LSTM-CNN models and improving the robustness of the algorithm. Finally, a dynamic optimization method for the weight parameters of the ensemble elements is proposed to accommodate the changes in the actual road networks. The experiments show that the measuring method of spatial correlations, the ensemble combination rules of diverse LSTM-CNN and the dynamic optimization method of ensemble element weight parameters, which are proposed in this paper, have positive effects on improving the performance of the prediction algorithm. In addition, the short-term traffic flow prediction method proposed in this paper can adapt to changes in the traffic flow. It can obtain a better prediction effect even with a small sample, and the prediction performance is better than that of the other four classical short-term traffic flow prediction methods.