A district-level building electricity use profile simulation model based on probability distribution inferences

Abstract

District-level building energy systems play a significant role in urban energy networks in the future. Understanding the key distributive features of district electricity use profiles is essential for the optimal planning and design of energy networks. Due to the diversity of building electricity use characteristics, the district-level electricity use profile exhibits a prominent “peak staggering effect.” Current physics-based and statistical models cannot fully represent realistic distributions and the uncertainties of district profiles. Thus, it is critical to quantitatively investigate the changing patterns and distributive features of electricity use profiles at various district levels. This paper proposes a novel approach for district building electricity use profile simulation. Probability distribution inference methods integrating Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)/lognorm distribution fitting, singular value decomposition (SVD)-based feature transformation, and distribution addition theorems have been proposed to generate the feature parameters of electricity use profiles at various district scales, thus generating simulated district electricity use profiles. The performance of the proposed model was validated using engineering-informed metrics, including peak demands, load duration curves, and standard deviations of the load parameters. The results of the case study suggest that the average relative error of the 99 % peak demand is reduced from 17.60 % in the baseline model to 3.48 % in the proposed model, the average relative error of the duration of 2Qm reduced from 40.82 % in the baseline model to 0.99 % in the proposed model, and the average relative error of the standard deviation of load parameters was reduced from >100 % in the baseline model to <35 % in the proposed model. The results indicate a better quantification of district electricity use distributions and uncertainties, providing practical tools to support the capacity design and optimization of integrated district energy systems.