Abstract

The dangers of forecasting will be obvious, particularly in the light of accelerating change emphasized by many of the previous speakers. In view of these papers by distinguished men, I cannot take refuge in one or two of the more certain of the developments and innovations to which they may have referred. I hope in these circumstances, I may be forgiven if I take something of a synoptic look, knowing that I have no unusual qualifications, except age, for this activity. I will therefore, in advance, apologize for some of my opinions, and understand that I am very vulnerable and can be challenged. In order to reach my assessment of needs, I shall take a look at the not-too-distant boundaries of technical development, for I share with scientific colleagues, great anxiety, though I retain some optimism. Any acceptable reference to needs however does not ensure that they will be met. Twelve years ago, we were encouraged by the reassessment of architectural education at Oxford (1958) and by a sequence of tripartite conferences which had, as their objective, a collaboration of effort in all matters of the organization of the Building Industry with a view to improved performance of both personnel and the project. In the years that followed we had many outward signs of innovation and development, as typified by curtain walling, the use of the tower crane and other mechanical handling gear, a number of prefabricated systems, and the nearly universal installation of central heating. It may be an oversimplification, but, for the argument, the development of much of this work preceded research, except no doubt behind the closed doors of individual companies. Research has tended to follow these manifestations - post mortem in effect - a condition that tends to bedevil the development and innovation of the industry. Much of the Building Research Station’s work is concerned with research which has become important due to failure, or simply lack of performance: this is not meant to be a criticism but it does reduce opportunities for innovation. In the considerable programme of work in the B. R. S.’s 50th anniversary year, great efforts are being made to improve concrete and develop plastics, to study jointing systems and sealants as related to accuracy and tolerances, and to portray with more certainty the interrelated problems of environment. Certainly a full programme, but it reveals some of the education, training and control deficiencies of the industry itself, which cannot be ignored.

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