A Directional Flow Migration Model

Abstract

It is apparent from a recent survey article on migration that additional understanding of migration has come from disaggregating migration flows and analyzing the behavior of more homogeneous subgroups [3]. One type of migration, return migration, has received some theoretical and empirical attention from Vanderkamp [7]. Vanderkamp's migration model is a simple one which incorporates the assumption that gross return migration is a constant proportion of previous gross migration. In a later article [8], he tests the constant proportion assumption and concludes that return migration flows are largely determined by previous migration and not by income in sender and receiver regions or distance between the two regions. The lack of response of return migration to income and distance found in Vanderkamp's study clearly suggests a reduced role for traditional mobility policy variables such as moving subsidies and relocation allowances in stimulating return migration. The purpose of this paper is to present a general migration model of the utility maximizing type in which the direction of migration-migration away from the home region, migration back to the home region, or neither-is explicitly considered. This paper will test whether the effects of distance and earnings on migration behavior are the same for the three different directions of migration. The first section of the paper presents the appropriate utility maximizing migration model and expectations. The second section describes the data base and presents the empirical results.