Abstract
In recent years, improvements in information technology have resulted in the increased availability of customer transaction data. This trend is closely linked to an ever-growing desire on the part of the marketing manager to use the firm's customer transaction databases to detect the customer is still alive or has been churn out. This research proposes a stochastic model for information managers to estimate the recency length of customers and predict the next purchase time length after the observation period end. This paper conducts exponetail distribution as interpurchase time and calculates its recency model. The results can provide managers to segment customer or make marketing strategy.
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