Abstract
ContextPast reviews of policy impact assessment studies using bio-economic farm models (BEFM) called for the development of a generic and modular implementation that can be maintained by a network of modellers. A main reason for these calls is the project-oriented way in which model developers receive funding. It favours the development of new models with case-study specific features over the maintenance and extension of well-tested, more generic ones which allow comparing results in a consistent way across many case-studies. The demand for more generic tools also reflects the dynamic landscape of policy measures within larger policy frameworks like the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). These policy frameworks move increasingly away from a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach of policy design towards more flexible systems, giving greater freedom to shape, implement, and target policy measures to specific regions, farm management systems and farm types. This creates new challenges for model-based impact assessment as applied models have to reflect the variety of policy measures and characteristics of targeted farmers and rural communities. ObjectiveThe aim of this paper is to first address key questions regarding the functionality and implementation of such a modular BEFM that can be maintained and expanded by a user group, and second to develop concrete proposals of necessary model features, model design and shared development. MethodsThis paper builds on literature research, including a detailed review of four models that are used extensively for impact assessment within the EU and were developed by multiple teams over a longer period of time. From there, necessary and desirable features of a generic and modular BEFM are identified and requirements for model design regarding modularity, software engineering, and shared development are discussed. Results and conclusionsThis feeds into the development of concrete proposals of how modularity and flexibility can be addressed in the development, application and maintenance of a BEFM. At the end, a list of design decisions and implementation steps is proposed to build a modular BEFM that can be maintained by a network of researchers. SignificanceThe concept for a network-based generic and modular bio-economic farm model responds to the demand for analytical tools in agricultural policy impact analysis. The paper develops a research agenda to overcome observed limitations in the current landscape of such models.
Highlights
A review of bio-economic farm models (BEFMs) by Janssen and van Ittersum in 2007, covering 48 studies published between 1982 and 2007, observed that these models are often developed for specific casestudies and rarely re-used, for instance by applying them to new datasets, or by including alternative farming practices or behavioural assumptions
The model IFM- Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) covers all surveyed farms of the European Farm Ac counting Data Network (FADN) in a template approach, i.e., the same structural equations are comprised in each model, such that differences are reflected in parameters only
We focus on product coverage and technological detail, investment decisions and flexible choice of the objective function, as the most important features for a generic BEFM approach suggested by the reviews
Summary
A review of bio-economic farm models (BEFMs) by Janssen and van Ittersum in 2007, covering 48 studies published between 1982 and 2007, observed that these models are often developed for specific casestudies and rarely re-used, for instance by applying them to new datasets, or by including alternative farming practices or behavioural assumptions. The recent proposal for the CAP post-2020 challenges the abilities of current BEFMs even further by aims such as stimulating farm structural change, enhancing the provi sion of public goods, including biodiversity, ecosystem services and climate change mitigation, and meeting societal expectations on animal welfare, food quality, food safety and health issues To address these points, new indicators need to be developed and integrated into BEFMs and, for instance, their technology representation improved, opening further chances to benefit from joint development. No comparable platform for the continued development of a generic and modular BEFM exists, but the iMAP concept may serve as an example of how to let the developed tool survive and to render them useful in policy assessment Reflecting upon these points, this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 reviews four BEFMs (CAPRI- FT, IFM-CAP, FARMDYN, FSSIM) which have been maintained over a longer time horizon and are regu larly applied. We conclude with an outlook on the development of a generic, modular, and transferable model
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