A Descriptive, Practical, Hybrid Argumentation Model to Assist with the Formulation of Defensible Assessments in Uncertain Sense-Making Environments

Celeste Groenewald,Peter Passmore,Simon Attfield,B L William Wong,Neesha Kodagoda

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-89294-8_8

Abstract

This paper presents our initial, descriptive, practical, hybrid argumentation model, designed for the use by Criminal Intelligence Analysts (from now on referred to as analysts) working with sophisticated visual analytical software in uncertain sense-making environments. Analysts are required to create exhibits (as evidence) for a court of law or as input for decision-making in intelligence-led policing. These exhibits are required to be accurate, relevant and unbiased. The aim of our practical argumentation model is to assist software developers with understanding how analysts think and explain during uncertain sense-making activities. This should inform software developers on the requirements for the externalisation process of analysts’ thoughts and explanations. We believe that if software developers can support the externalisation process of analysts’ thoughts and explanations, then the process of assessing and judging the outcomes of sense-making activities becomes manageable and traceable for analysts and auditors.

Highlights

Criminal Intelligence Analysis has been described as, “a philosophy which sets out how we can approach the investigation of crime and criminals by using the intelligence and information that we have collected concerning them
The Authorised Professional Practice (APP) states that intelligence is, “collected information that has been developed for action” and that it may be classified as “sensitive or confidential” (HMIC 2015)
The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) description outlines the inference making aspect of Criminal Intelligence Analysis and the need for techniques to assist with the structuring of these often tacit processes

Summary

Introduction

Criminal Intelligence Analysis has been described as, “a philosophy which sets out how we can approach the investigation of crime and criminals by using the intelligence and information that we have collected concerning them. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s (UNODC) description outlines the inference making aspect of Criminal Intelligence Analysis and the need for techniques to assist with the structuring of these often tacit processes. The National Intelligence Model (NIM) stipulates the aim of crime analysis as, “to interpret a range of information to develop inferences, which are conclusions about what is known or what is believed to be happening” (CENTREX 2007). The purpose of these techniques is to increase understanding surrounding the 5WH questions (who, what, when, where and how) and to predict harm, threats, risks and opportunities

Objectives

Methods

Conclusion