Abstract
A first-order autoregressive model was used to describe the response of the water level in a borehole to a series of rainfall events. A computer program was written to determine the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of this model, and the trajectories produced were then compared with those from a straightforward application of least squares, by applying them to a simulated time series. The model was then applied to data obtained from a drainage experiment. The descriptive characterization of the dynamic behaviour of the borehole levels by the three parameters of our model is an improvement over characterization by static methods such as means and variances. Furthermore our model can be used to predict borehole levels in response to given rainfall events.
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