A descriptive exploration of the geographic and sociodemographic concentration of firearm homicide in the United States, 2004–2018

Abstract

This study examined the population-based incidence of firearm homicide in the United States to identify geographic concentrations and to determine whether such concentrations have changed over time. It further examined the simultaneous associations of urbanization, poverty, and ethnicity/race with firearm homicide incidence. Using county-level data from the National Vital Statistics System and the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2004–2018, the findings show geographic patterns not commonly recognized, including several lengthy and continuous corridors with a high incidence of firearm homicide, traversing both metro and non-metro areas. While the data clearly show a strongly disproportionate concentration of firearm homicide incidence in a subset of the population defined by geography, they do not suggest increasing concentration over time. The study findings also generally indicate increasing firearm homicide incidence with increasing levels of surrounding poverty, a phenomenon observed for both metro and non-metro areas.