Abstract
With the acceleration of global urbanization and climate change, dengue fever is spreading worldwide. Different levels of dengue fever have also occurred in China, especially in southern China, causing enormous economic losses. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment for dengue, and the most popular dengue vaccine does not exhibit good curative effects. Therefore, we developed a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) that gathered climate factors (mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation) and Baidu search data during 2011–2015 in Guangzhou city to improve the accuracy of dengue fever prediction. Firstly, the time series dengue fever data were decomposed into seasonal, trend and remainder components by the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess (STL). Secondly, the time lag of variables was determined in cross-correlation analysis and the order of autocorrelation was estimated using autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF). Finally, the GAMM was built and evaluated by comparing it with Generalized Additive Mode (GAM). Experimental results indicated that the GAMM (R2: 0.95 and RMSE: 34.1) has a superior prediction capability than GAM (R2: 0.86 and RMSE: 121.9). The study could help the government agencies and hospitals respond early to dengue fever outbreak.
Highlights
Dengue fever (DF), an acute vector-borne disease caused by dengue virus, belongs to the Flaviviridae family, and is transmitted by mosquito vectors [1,2,3]
The time series of the monthly Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) is significantly similar to the time series of monthly dengue cases, which shows two peaks in 2013 and 2014
The decomposition result showed that DF in Guangzhou city had an increased treed from 2011 to 2014, and mildly decrease in 2015
Summary
Dengue fever (DF), an acute vector-borne disease caused by dengue virus, belongs to the Flaviviridae family, and is transmitted by mosquito vectors [1,2,3]. People who become infected can develop clinical symptoms with different levels, such as mild fever, headache, muscle and joint pain. In severe cases, bleeding, shock and even death can occur [2,3,4]. DF spreads widely in tropical and subtropical regions, such as Africa, Americas, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific [5]. Evidence has shown that nearly half of the world’s population face the threat of DF, and 390 million individuals were infected with dengue per year, of which nearly 96 million.
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